Three proud voters display their inked fingers after casting their ballots.
PETALING JAYA: Perikatan Nasional has repeatedly told its members it needs at least a 10% swing in non-Malay support in order to capture more parliamentary seats and federal power.
This is because Perikatan had made huge gains in the 15th General Election (GE15) and 2023 state elections (SE15) thanks to Malay voters but it has reached the ceiling when it comes to support from that community, say experts who studied voting trends.
So in order to win more seats, Perikatan has to increase its support from non-Malays in the peninsula.
In fact, Perikatan youth leaders such as Aubidullah Fahim Ibrahim of PAS had even gone so far as telling members of his party’s youth wing to marry non-Malays so as to increase the community’s support.
But putting aside how it plans to convince non-Malays to vote for it, an analysis and projection by The Star based on GE15 and SE15 voting trends found that its 10% target is off the mark.
Instead, The Star’s analysis found that based on past voting behaviour among non-Malays, the Opposition coalition needs to swing at least an average of 20% of the community’s vote in any given parliamentary seat where they have a significant presence.
These are seats where non-Malays roughly comprise more than 30% of all voters and which were won in GE15 by Pakatan Harapan parties – PKR, DAP and Amanah – and by Barisan Nasional parties MCA and MIC in Ayer Hitam, Tanjung Piai and Tapah.
Were they able to achieve that 20% swing and maintain the same level of Malay support it received in GE15, they would only capture one seat – Sungai Petani in Kedah – held by PKR.
This is also only achievable if Perikatan managed to win over at 20% of Sungai Petani’s non-Malay voters.
In order to really add to the 74 parliamentary seats it won in GE15, Perikatan would need a 30% swing of non-Malay voters to net them Sungai Petani along with eight other seats – Tanjung Malim, Tambun, Balik Pulau, Gombak, Sekijang, Batu Pahat, Sri Gading and Raub.
A vote swing of 40% of non-Malays would enable to Perikatan to win the above seats and six more including Setiawangsa, Bandar Tun Razak and Sepang.
To achieve that, it would mean convincing about one in three non-Malay voters in the above constituencies to vote for Perikatan.
Political scientist Prof Wong Chin Huat argues that Perikatan can't win a 10% swing from non-Malays with all its ethno-religious attacks on minorities.
“It doesn't need that. It just needs 10% to 15% of non-Malays to stay home when GE16 comes and let Umno leaders like (Umno Youth chief Datuk Dr Muhammad Akmal Salleh) to, knowingly or not, help Perikatan,” said Wong of Sunway University.
“The lower voter turnout is definitely happening, as indicated in the lower turnout among non-Malays and liberals in the Sungai Bakap and Mahkota by-elections,” Wong added.
Political scientist Assoc Prof Bridget Welsh’s analysis of voting trends found that the turnout rate of eligible Chinese and Indian voters in GE15 was 69% and 73% respectively.
When it came to their voting preferences, about 95% of all Chinese and 81% of Indian voters chose Pakatan Harapan, said Welsh, of the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute-Malaysia.
Based on these figures, The Star calculated how big of a swing among non-Malays Perikatan would need to win more parliamentary seats provided that these voting trends continue in GE16.
This also assumes that the demographic composition of all parliamentary seats, as calculated by election data site, undi.info, is maintained until GE16.
The analysis discounts Sabah and Sarawak seats because aside from the lone seat of Beluran, Perikatan has very little influence in the Borneo states.
Perikatan is made up of PAS, Bersatu and Parti Gerakan, and except Berluran, all of its 74 parliamentary seats are constituencies where Malays make up more than 70% of voters.
Barisan holds three multi-ethnic seats, Ayer Hitam and Tanjung Piai by MCA, and Tapah by MIC.
Of the 81 constituencies held by Pakatan, 40 were won by DAP, 31 by PKR, eight while Amanah and Upko bagged eight and two respectively.
It is the seats held by PKR and Amanah that are the most likely to fall to Perikatan if the Opposition coalition can manage to swing non-Malay support to its side.
This is since, in most of DAP’s seats, non-Malays comprise between 55% to 91% of voters, meaning that Perikatan would have to win more than an average of 50% of all non-Malay voters in those areas in order to capture them.
The exception to this is the DAP seat of Raub, which has 48% of non-Malay voters and would fall if Perikatan could swing 30% of the community’s vote.
